Key events
How to read exit poll
Jakub Krupa
For all the understandable focus on the exit poll at 9pm (8pm BST), let’s face one thing: yes, it will give us an indication on where the pollsters think we are, but do not be surprised if their top line is well within the margin of error.
On Friday, Ipsos Poland – which runs the main exit poll for three broadcasters, TVP, TVP and Polsat – warned that the exit poll has +/- 2% error for each candidate, with the later late exit poll – expected two hours later – narrowing it down to +/- 1%.
Given how close this race has been, it is not inconceivable that the difference between the two candidates will still be within that margin, and that means we will have to wait a bit longer.
Ipsos themselves said that, of course, they were well prepared for the challenge ahead, but would still need a bit more luck than usual.
There is also a second exit poll, by OGB for Republika (same caveats and rules on margins of error apply). They were pretty close in the first round, so I will bring you both sets of figures.
For context, here is our poll tracker looking at all the polls conducted and published before the country went into electoral silence on Friday night.
Jakub Krupa
60 minutes to go.
Both candidates cast their votes earlier today, surrounded by their closest family members.
And both of them voted in Warsaw, where they will also host their results parties tonight.
Poland chooses its next president
Jakub Krupa
Good evening, or dobry wieczór, from Warsaw, Poland.
We are less than 90 minutes away from the polls closing in what is the expected to be the closest Polish presidential election after the fall of communism in 1989.
The race pits the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s politically-diverse governing coalition, against the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice (PiS) party that governed the country between 2015 and 2023.
Reporting from Warsaw, I will bring you all the key updates throughout the evening as we hope to find out who will be the next president of Poland.
Why does it matter, I hear you ask? Well, it’s Europe’s sixth largest economy, the highest GDP spender on defence within Nato, and a (so far) supportive ally of Ukraine. That’s to start with.
You can read our primer on what it means for Poland’s domestic politics and the position of the current government, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, here.
If you fancy a broader look at Poland’s place in Europe and what tonight’s result could mean for that, here’s a broader analysis on that issue.
If you don’t want to read the entire thing just yet, don’t worry – I will bring you some key bullet points here.
The polls close 9pm local (8pm BST), and we will get exit polls numbers straight away.
It’s Sunday, 1 June 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here.
Let’s go. Zaczynamy.
